cclark@mavs.coloradomesa.edu, jdredmon@mavs.coloradomesa.edu
With the 2013 NFL Draft slated for April 25-27, teams were wholly focused on last weekend’s scouting combine in Indianapolis. Players from every position came and showed their talents in hopes of raising their draft stock. The focus now shifts to deciding who will fit into their respective systems. Which has us wondering where some of the more notable players will end up in late April.
Jesse Redmond: Kansas City holds the first pick this year and, ideally, they would like to pick a quarterback. In fact, 12 of the past 15 first overall picks were quarterbacks. However, unfortunately for the Chiefs, there just aren’t any in my mind that warrant the top choice this year. The wise choice for them would be to take one of four offensive lineman being lauded as sure first-round talents including the overall favorite Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M.
Chris Clark: Kansas City will draft Geno Smith in the first round. Andy Reid is a strategically liberal coach who favors a pass-heavy offense. He will want to make this team his own, especially considering the Chiefs haven’t won a game with a QB that they drafted in 25 years. Granted, there are some good options available to them in free agency, including Alex Smith and Matt Flynn, but even if one of them lands with the Chiefs, I have a feeling that their front office is tired of assembling an offense with the discarded parts of other teams.
You make a good point that there are some valuable linemen in this year’s draft, but the fact that the class of 2013 is so stacked with in-the-trenches talent, means KC can make a pretty safe bet on finding a big man lower on the draft board.
J.R.: I agree that Smith is the favorite for them at quarterback, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade down and take him later in the first. The risk is too high for the Chiefs as a team and for Reid to risk his already shaky reputation as head coach betting on Smith’s ability to successfully lead them.
Smith may not even be the first quarterback taken in the draft, let alone the first player. Early talks are that Arizona was more than impressed with USC’s Matt Barkley and if he impresses in USC’s Pro Day in late March, he may be the first QB off the board.
C.C.: I’m sure that Barkley will be a valuable QB prospect, but as we all know (looking at you, Ryan Leaf) that drafting a ball chucker can be a crapshoot. The Cardinals might pick up Smith or Barkley, but their offense has a serious identity crisis that cannot be solved in the long term without finding a young QB who can be molded into a leader.
And the Chiefs aren’t the only team with this sort of problem. There seems to be a pretty serious gap between the top 10 QBs and the rest of the pack. Arizona, Jacksonville and Cleveland, among other teams, are all hungry for even a lowly “game manager.” I expect the draft stock of all the top QB prospects to steadily climb as the draft approaches.
J.R.: That is more than likely going to be the case this year. The NFL has a long history of having multiple quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds, with an average of six in the past ten years. Four of those years have even had four quarterbacks taken in the first round. I expect no less than three this year, judging by the number of teams that have had struggles in the past few years passing the ball that hired new coaches. Each of them will more than likely take a chance on a quarterback, regardless of draft order.
However, as mentioned before, the talent of offensive lineman is too thick to pass up this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if recent trends continue and the number of lineman drafted in the first round is higher than quarterbacks for the sixth time in the last seven years.
C.C.: I just can’t see any teams with early first rounders allowing QB prospects like Barkley or Smith to slip down the draft board. Remember how surprised everyone was when the Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers? And look how it turned out for them after Favre left the organization.
Now imagine a coach struggling to develop a QB like Blaine Gabbert – sure, Barkley and Smith are a gamble, but isn’t the greater risk allowing a potential weapon of pass destruction to fall into the hands of your enemy?
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