Grand Junction was largely born for its proximity to the Colorado River, a multi-state principal river that feeds the southwest US and northern Mexico. This mother river provies water to over 40 million people, necessitating the Colorado River Compact—an agreement created in 1922 to manage water access. In 2026, the compact is being redrafted, with tensions rising from different states and anxiety generating among farmers, residents and indigenous tribes.

The Colorado Compact was originally established in 1922, with amendments to accommodate Native American tribes. Surplus water is typically used by Arizona and California, sometimes invoking the ire of Colorado citizens, due to perceived water loss. Nevada also presents anxiety, with the fall of Lake Mead’s water supply, and thus would have to rely on the Colorado River to supply cities, such as Las Vegas, with continuous conservation efforts.

Water that does reach Mexico is reported to be heavily polluted, contributing to the border water crisis. Mexican locals on the other side are left with a dry delta, a heavy contrast to its previous abundance that included waterfowl, jaguars, beavers and other wildlife. The previous habitat was similar to a temperate jungle, inhabited by the Cucapá, called Xawill Kwñchawaay in their own language.

Some Mexicans reportedly view the river as the “lost river,” as the US refuses water to Mexico. The Trump Administration, in 2025, also denied Mexico any Colorado River rights, despite a treaty from 1944. Only a trickle of the river’s water reaches the ocean, due to heavy usage by human dams and canals.

Land aquifers across Mexico and the US also face collapse from drought. Over two million acres of diverse wetland have decreased by 90%.

The Colorado River Basin and Climatic Change report an ongoing megadrought across the southwest since 2000, and the current water system is likely to fail the river in its ability to flow. 30 tribes still struggle to receive their legally defined water rights, and most states do not receive their fully allotted amount, as the river cannot provide it.

The compact is set for redistricting in October 2026. If a conclusion cannot be met by the states, the national government will supersede, establishing the new compact. So far, no state has found an agreement that works with their water needs, which may mean the interior secretary will become the watermaster.

Lawsuits are predicted to be inflicted against the Interior Secretary if the states are not satisfied. Large entities, such as agricultural organizations, may also use capital power to influence lawmakers to designate themselves more water rights, which may deplete water for common citizens, and further desiccate Native Tribes.

Legislators continue to argue, yet a consensus is held that the redistricting should be kept from the Supreme Court, which may not be equipped to properly handle redistricting.

Amy Haas, executive director of the Colorado River Authority of Utah, has stated to NPR news that “folly for us to pursue a litigated outcome here.”

With rising anxieties, some homeowners have begun to turn to rainwater collection. While it secures a sense of security, all collected rainwater is water that does not return to the water cycle – a cycle that is limited. If fresh water is dispersed faster than nature’s cycle, cities risk running out of freshwater. Data centers for Large Language Models, often called Artificial Intelegence, also threaten to consume high amounts of freshwater to cool their processing plants. The Trump Administration also signed in the Accelerating Federal Permitting of Data Center Infrastructure, which allows AI increased access to freshwater, despite its illegality based on the National Environmental Policy Act.

This, compounded with an uncertain future, leaves 40 million Americans at risk, and the Colorado River flow is predicted to drop around 9% over the next 50 years. Organizations such as The Water Desk, based in University of Colorado Boulder, predict unknown, yet devastating, consequences as fire risks increase and the soothing aid of snowfall begins to melt away. Some citizens may be triggered into panic, as The Pacific Institute reports an increase in the violence rate by 50%, triggered by water rights conflicts in 2023.

As the land continues to thirst from rising temperatures and climate catastrophe, water yields will continue decreasing. The Colorado River has historically struggled to meet its compact demands that continue to increase, failing vulnerable groups such as Native American communities. As the world continues to grow hotter, water advocacy groups continue to grieve that the Southwest will face adversity in supporting both the natural lands and human civilization.