Ladies and Gentleman, it is finally here.
Our favorite time of the year is finally upon us and we get to act as if we own an NFL team and draft the best 15 or 16 players. We look at each matchup to figure out who will get your team the win and who needs to sit on your bench.
Well, I’m here to help you either with your draft or with your waiver wire research. You don’t have to take my word because this is my opinion, but don’t blame me if you lose. I take the rankings, projections, preseason, and expert opinions into account always to give you the best information. Now, I’m looking at rankings and stats for PPR and Half-PPR leagues b
Sleepers
Russell Gage WR, Atlanta Falcons:
Now I know that the Falcons can be a volatile team, but I actually like them this year for fantasy value alone. They have a ton of weapons, and they love to throw the ball which only means good things for Russell Gage.
When Julio was out of the lineup last year, Gage stepped up and was a clear No. 2 option. He had 110 targets last season with 72 receptions and if you are playing in a PPR league, that is good news for you. He doesn’t have to compete with Julio this year and I don’t think Kyle Pitts or Mike Davis will eat into his target value enough for it matter.
Calvin Ridley will be a big part of the offense, but that is just going to open things up for Gage. He finished last year with 786 receiving yards last year and 4 touchdowns, and he is definitely going to improve upon that this year. He is going to be a dangerous sleeper or waiver wire pickup because his volume in the passing game is going to dramatically increase this year.
Trey Sermon RB, San Francisco 49ers:
I don’t even want to put this one out here because I love Trey Sermon so much. He is in an offense that loves to run the ball and despite the other backs, I think Sermon is the clear No. 2 going into the season.
He has receiving and rushing value with is a dream for fantasy owners, PPR, Half-PPR or standard leagues formats. Sermon’s average draft position (ADP) is rising, but he is worth it because he will get work in a productive 49ers offense no matter the quarterback. According to the Fantasy Football Calculator his average draft position in a 12-man PPR league is sixth round.
Now he may not garner a ton of points early, he will be productive for your fantasy football team. You just have to trust the process.
Must Gets
Antonio Gibson RB, Washington Football Team:
If you had him last year, you already know who Antonio Gibson is. For those who didn’t, let me tell you that Antonio Gibson is going to be the biggest steal or value pick for where he is going right now in drafts. His ADP in current drafts is 2.03 which is a high price that will pay off.
He rushed for 795 yards last season and a whopping 11 touchdowns (tied for the 7 most). Now he is expecting a bigger workload, and you are going to try to tell me that you don’t want this guy on your fantasy team. His receiving volume is supposed to go up which is going to be huge for his fantasy campaign because nowadays a running back that can catch the ball is invaluable.
If I need to say more, I will. The Washington offense is primed to be explosive with the additions of Curtis Samuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Fitzmagic, you all know). While the WFT will look down field with Fitzmagic, their coach is still Ron Rivera, and he loves to run the football.
Antonio Gibson is going to be a guy that you will want to get on your fantasy team or you will regret it when you face him.
Cooper Kupp WR, Los Angeles Rams:
Now I know that you have to spend an early third or fourth-round pick on him, but it will be worth it. The addition of Matthew Stafford is going to make the passing game more dynamic in every aspect. Stafford can do more with the football than Jared Goff has ever been able to, and within the Sean McVay offense, Stafford will blossom.
The concepts that McVay runs with Robert Woods and Kupp are going to open them up a ton this year. Plus, Stafford can fit the ball into any spot and the Rams will be forced to throw the ball more with Cam Akers out for the year.
Kupp is going to be someone that you want on your fantasy team. His consensus ranking is 18 across the national media outlets rankings, and I think there is potential for him to get into the top-12.
People to stay away from
The Houston Texans Backfield:
At least early this season, I’m staying away from the Texans backfield because I don’t know how it is going to shape out. David Johnson, Philip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Mark Ingram are all on the roster and I expect them all to get some work this season.
David Johnson is the only one with clear fantasy value at the moment, but I don’t know for how long he will be the clear lead-back. Tyrod Taylor is also most likely going to be the quarterback for the year because I believe Deshaun Watson will end up on the Commissioner’s Exempt List soon. The Texans aren’t going to score a ton of points this season which is going to drastically change late in the game.
I don’t trust this backfield because of how volatile that it is going to be on a week-to-week basis. David Johnson is the only one that I think will have some consistent value for the Texans because the receiving value that he has. Outside of Johnson’s receiving value there isn’t much to be desired with the Houston backfield.
Juju Smith-Schuster WR, Pittsburgh Steelers:
Now I know that Juju will have a workload within the Steelers offense this year, but I don’t think it will be the same. Dionate Johnson and Chase Claypool are the two receivers for the Steelers that I think will be the most valuable for the Steelers offense.
The Steelers are going to be more balanced offensively because Najee Harris demands the football. That’s why I think Johnson and Claypool are the guys to go with in the receiving corps. I don’t think Smith-Schuster is a No. 1 receiver and it showed last season as we saw a dip in his production.
It wasn’t an outlier, it’s a trend that will continue this season especially as Johnson and Claypool continue to breakout. He finished last year with 97 receptions and nine touchdowns which are solid numbers but the Steelers heavily featured the pass last season. This year, the offense will be more balanced and I think Johnson will take a large part of the target share.
Claypool remains a deep-threat that gets mixed in with the run game, and I expect his workload to go up this season. I think this is Smith-Schuster’s last year with the Steelers, and I don’t think he should’ve gone back for this year.
